{"id":2121,"date":"2021-07-14T16:07:11","date_gmt":"2021-07-14T23:07:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lee-associates.com\/pasadena\/?p=2121"},"modified":"2021-07-14T16:10:27","modified_gmt":"2021-07-14T23:10:27","slug":"the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lee-associates.com\/pasadena\/2021\/07\/14\/the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction\/","title":{"rendered":"The COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact or Fiction"},"content":{"rendered":"

July 2021<\/strong> –\u00a0 The COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact or Fiction<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"

Robert Leveen, Senior VP<\/p><\/div>\n

As published in Receivership News, Summer 2021, Issue 72<\/em>, Robert Leveen<\/a>, Senior Vice President at Lee & Associates \u2013 Pasadena discusses the COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact of Fiction.<\/p>\n

**********<\/p>\n

A few times a month, I receive a call from an appraiser to confirm pricing on a recently closed transaction.\u00a0 Once I report the numbers, invariably I get the question, \u201cWhat do you think is the COVID-19 discount?\u201d\u00a0 It is the question of the day.\u00a0 However, there is no simple response.\u00a0 Each commercial real estate product type has been subject to different economic forces which have played out during the pandemic.\u00a0 The following breaks it down by the four main product types, with our focus on the Los Angeles Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA):<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Multifamily:<\/strong>\u00a0 The apartment building transactions I closed in the last twelve months, all in city of Los Angeles, had at the most a 3% discount to 2019.\u00a0 One of the properties had 25% vacancy as the seller never attempted to lease the units after tenants had vacated in the year prior.\u00a0 Early in the pandemic, lending locked up, but only for a short time.\u00a0 Then, lenders slowly returned to financing acquisitions, along with requiring increased reserves.\u00a0 And with lower interest rates, the sector has been largely shielded from significant value adjustment.\u00a0 As one can see by the chart, values continue to push higher.\u00a0 Overall, physical vacancy rate is up in the MSA.\u00a0 Additionally, economic vacancy has increased. This is when a tenant is delinquent, or has stopped paying altogether, totaling 5.8%, a significant jump from 4% over the trailing three years.\u00a0 In higher demand locations such as West Los Angeles and Santa Monica, asking rents declined by 10-15% from 2019.\u00a0 As of this writing in early June, the state eviction moratorium is set to expire June 30.\u00a0 \u00a0If not extended, it will kick off a tsunami of unlawful detainer filings, forcing many tenants to relocate.\u00a0 Most landlords will digest the unpaid rent and move on.\u00a0 New multi-family developments (24,000 units currently under construction) which will be delivered in the next 12 to 18 months, will add new supply.\u00a0 Even so, thanks to the success of the vaccine, it is now anticipated positive rent growth will return to the MSA much faster than predicted just six months ago.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n\"\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Office:<\/strong>\u00a0 As many of us are working from home, office buildings have not seen this pace of occupancy erosion since 2008-2009.\u00a0 Market vacancy is at 13.5%.\u00a0 However, what is a perfect example of the tail wagging the dog is a tremendous increase of available sublease space to the tune of 9.5 million square feet.\u00a0 By comparison, there was 468,000 SF of sublease space available at the end of Q1, 2020.\u00a0 This could negatively impact valuations, if the tenants look to landlords for rent relief or initiate renegotiation.\u00a0 There was little to no effect on pricing in 2020, but MSA sales volume dipped by 45% compared to 2019, from $7.7 billion to $4.2 billion, indicating investors pushed the pause button.\u00a0 There are two competing schools of thought. One is office tenants will shed space as working remotely continues to be in favor.\u00a0 Conversely, in the long run, demand for space may increase as tenants seek to spread workers out.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n\"\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Industrial:<\/strong>\u00a0 Even with the juggernauts of the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach driving the industrial market for decades, new development is challenging due to high land cost, and a lack of large sites in the MSA.\u00a0 Most of the inventory is older and smaller.\u00a0 But the demand for logistics still exists.\u00a0 The increased demand for industrial and warehouse space has become even more pronounced in the pandemic.\u00a0 Amazon continues its real estate acquisition spree, recently closing on the old Orange County Register property in Santa Ana.\u00a0 As part of their last mile distribution network, it will redevelop it into a 110,000 SF fulfillment center for Orange County.\u00a0 Average sold price per square foot increased from $218 to $234, or 7.34%, over the end of 2019.\u00a0 Average Cap rates compressed to 4.6%.\u00a0 The market vacancy has declined to 2.5% from a pandemic high of 3.2%, further supporting forecasts of continued upward movement with deals trading in the $250 per square foot range in the latter part of 2021.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n\"\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Retail:\u00a0 <\/strong>This sector was already seeing softening prior to the pandemic driven by Internet-based sales.\u00a0 The challenges will continue and, consequently, values will adjust.\u00a0 On a personal experience level, I have a DTLA retail listing which went under contract just prior to the pandemic at $32,000,000, with $1.7 million of annual in-place income, and the buyer\u2019s intention was to redevelop into multi-family.\u00a0 The pandemic caused the transaction to fall apart.\u00a0 As of this writing, we are now at the court confirmation and overbid stage with the first overbid increment set at $23,000,000.\u00a0 This particular property suffered two-fold.\u00a0 One, from loss of in-place income due to lockdowns.\u00a0 And two, valuations for infill developable land have declined.\u00a0 Along with notable inflation on lumber and steel, construction costs have risen significantly, adding more risk to an already risky venture. \u00a0Similarly, vacancies have increased from 4.8% to 5.5% over the trailing fifteen months.\u00a0 Average sold price per square foot declined from $392 to $383.\u00a0 While only a 2.3% decline, it is anticipated the decline trend will continue in the near term before stabilizing.\u00a0 Our office is forecasting small retail strip centers with mom-and-pop tenants will continue to struggle well beyond 2021.\u00a0 For property owners with significant debt, and lenders unwilling to offer forbearance, it will leave them with few options.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n\"\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

July 2021 –\u00a0 The COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact or Fiction As published in Receivership News, Summer 2021, Issue 72, Robert Leveen, Senior Vice President at Lee & Associates \u2013 Pasadena discusses the COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact of Fiction. ********** A few times a month, I receive a call from an appraiser to confirm pricing on a recently closed transaction.\u00a0 Once I report the numbers, invariably I get the question, \u201cWhat do you think…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":72,"featured_media":1362,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-press-releases"],"yoast_head":"\nThe COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact or Fiction - Lee & Associates Pasadena<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As published in \u201cReceivership News\u201d, Robert Leveen, Senior Vice President at Lee & Associates \u2013 Pasadena discusses The COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact of Fiction.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lee-associates.com\/pasadena\/2021\/07\/14\/the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact or Fiction\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As published in \u201cReceivership News\u201d, Robert Leveen, Senior Vice President at Lee & Associates \u2013 Pasadena discusses The COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact of Fiction.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lee-associates.com\/pasadena\/2021\/07\/14\/the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lee & Associates Pasadena\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-07-14T23:07:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-07-14T23:10:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lee-associates.com\/pasadena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/58\/2019\/03\/In-the-News.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"876\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Kimberly Barbata\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Kimberly Barbata\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lee-associates.com\\\/pasadena\\\/2021\\\/07\\\/14\\\/the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lee-associates.com\\\/pasadena\\\/2021\\\/07\\\/14\\\/the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Kimberly Barbata\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lee-associates.com\\\/pasadena\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/39c73333ee18b51e98f4bbeb3385ccb5\"},\"headline\":\"The COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact or Fiction\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-07-14T23:07:11+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-07-14T23:10:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lee-associates.com\\\/pasadena\\\/2021\\\/07\\\/14\\\/the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":914,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lee-associates.com\\\/pasadena\\\/2021\\\/07\\\/14\\\/the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lee-associates.com\\\/pasadena\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/58\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/In-the-News.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Blog\",\"Press Releases\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lee-associates.com\\\/pasadena\\\/2021\\\/07\\\/14\\\/the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lee-associates.com\\\/pasadena\\\/2021\\\/07\\\/14\\\/the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.lee-associates.com\\\/pasadena\\\/2021\\\/07\\\/14\\\/the-covid-19-real-estate-discount-fact-or-fiction\\\/\",\"name\":\"The COVID-19 Real Estate Discount: Fact or Fiction - 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