DEMAND FOR SPACE, LEASE RATES CONTINUE TO FALL IN Q3
2025 Q3 Industrial Report Orange County shows the long-running easing trend in overall industrial demand continued in the third quarter as lease rates slipped and countywide vacancy climbed to its highest level since 2011, the aftermath of the Great Recession.
Net absorption in the third quarter was negative 850,291 SF. It was the greatest quarterly loss this year and a record 11th straight quarter of tenant contraction, during which the vacancy rate increased from 1.8% to 6.6%.
Triple-net asking lease rates increased to an average of $1.50 per SF, down 2 cents per SF from last quarter and off 12% from a record high two years ago. But the “effective” rental rate on most new leases is lower because landlords strategically favor allowing free rent in negotiations – typically one month free rent per year – instead of cutting the lease rate. The reduced effective rental rate often translates savings to the tenant of between 5% and 8%. Meanwhile, landlords theorize that after the free rent is used up in the first year, the property’s full value will be restored for the remainder of the lease.
Contrary to the overall market weakness, demand recently has risen for distribution buildings between 100,000-200,000 SF. A new Lee & Associates’ survey of property in this range shows a decline in the last two quarters in availability from 54 to 46 buildings, and buildings available for sublease fell from 14 to nine.
Moreover, developers are counting on continuing investor and tenant demand for larger buildings, which began substantially increasing in size around the millennium. For example, 55 buildings delivered in 2007 averaged 27,306 SF compared to 18 buildings averaging 106,461 SF completed in the last four quarters. Also, Orange County has been industrially built-out more or less for two decades. The current inventory of 8,219 buildings totals 277.8 million SF and – despite scores of subsequent additions and demolitions – hardly is changed from the 278.9 million SF in 8,223 buildings in 2005.
In the 117-million SF North County submarket, the county’s largest, tenants shed 562,526 SF in the third quarter, driving up the vacancy rate 70 basis points to 6.6%.
Negative net absorption totaled 353,535 SF in West County in the third quarter and pushed up the vacancy rate 80 basis points to 7%.
Following net losses in the previous two quarters, South County gained 36,447 SF of net absorption in Q3 and the Airport market reported 29,423 SF of positive demand.
Defense contractor Andruil Industries signed the largest direct lease of the quarter on a new 162,656-SF Class A building at 3130 S. Harbor Blvd., Santa Ana.
Food maker 180 Snacks leased a Class A, 141,626-SF corporate-headquarters and manufacturing building at 4260 N. Harbor Blvd., Fullerton, for seven years. ProLogis, the landlord, was asking $1.55 per SF.
Stockbridge Capital of San Francisco bought a 290,920-SF building in Buena Park for $99.5 million or $342 per SF from Atlanta industrial developer IDI Logistics.
MARKET FORECAST
About 22% of local business executives surveyed by Cal State Fullerton said they expect to increase their labor force in Q4 compared to 18% in Q3. Nine percent expect to cut jobs compared to 14% in Q3. Unease over interest rates overshadowed inflation as the most common concern.
